real estate news

Montague Miller Blog Home

Subscribe and receive email notifications of new blog posts.




rss logo RSS Feed
buying a home | 94 Posts
mortgage | 3 Posts
real estate news | 44 Posts
selling a home | 28 Posts
Uncategorized | 8 Posts
June
1

 

The last two years caught many of us off guard—and not just because of the pandemic. They also ushered in the hottest housing market on record, with home prices rising nationally by nearly 19% in 2021, driven primarily by low mortgage rates and a major supply shortage.1

 But while some had hoped 2022 would bring a return to normalcy, the U.S. real estate market continues to boom, despite rising interest rates and decreasing affordability.

 So what's driving this persistent demand? And is there an end in sight?

Here are three factors impacting the real estate market right now. Find out how they could affect you if you're a current homeowner or plan to buy or sell a home this year.

 MORTGAGE RATES ARE RISING FASTER THAN EXPECTED

 Over the past couple of years, homebuyers have faced intense competition for new homes—in part due to historically low mortgage rates that were a result of the Federal Reserve's efforts to keep the economy afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 However, in response to a concerning level of inflation, the Fed is now reversing those efforts by raising the federal funds rate. And as a result, mortgage rates are rising, as well. Few experts predicted, though, that mortgage rates would go up as quickly as they have.

 In January 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association projected that rates would reach 4% by the end of this year.2 By mid-April, however, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had already hit 5%, up from around 3% just one year prior.3 On a $400,000 mortgage, that 2% difference could translate into an additional $461 per monthly payment.

 Since then, mortgage rates have continued on an upward trend. So what impact are these rising rates having on demand? While many buyers had hoped for a cooling effect, experts warn that may not be the case.

 Ali Wolf, chief economist at housing market research firm Zanda, told Fortune magazine, "Rising mortgage rates are having a counterintuitive effect on the housing market. Home shoppers are actually sprung into action in an attempt to buy a home before mortgage rates rise any higher."4

 Since inventory remains low, the resulting "race" has kept the homebuying market highly competitive–at least for now.

 What does it mean for you?

 While current 30-year fixed mortgage rates represent an increase over previous months, they remain well below the historical average of 8%.5 As inflation across the economy continues, the Fed is likely to raise rates further this year. Buyers should act fast to secure a good mortgage rate. We'd be happy to refer you to a lender who can help.

 For sellers, speed is also of the essence. The pool of potential buyers may shrink as mortgages become more expensive. And if you plan to finance your next home, you'll want to act quickly to secure a favorable rate for yourself. Contact us today to discuss your options.

 HOME PRICES KEEP CLIMBING

 History shows that higher interest rates don't necessarily translate to lower home prices. In fact, home prices rose 5% between 1980 and 1982, a period of significantly higher mortgage rates and inflation.5

 Forecasters expect that home prices will continue to go up throughout 2022, though likely at a slower pace than the 18.8% increase of the last 12 months.4 Bank of America predicts that prices will be up approximately 10% by the end of this year, while Fannie Mae estimates 11.2%.6,7

 In addition to limited supply and a race to beat rising mortgage rates, home values are also climbing because of positive economic indicators, like low unemployment.8 Plus, rents are soaring–up 17% from a year ago–which is prompting more first-time homebuyers to enter the market.9 Add to that the continued popularity of remote work, and it's easy to see why property prices continue to surge.

 However, it's not all bad news for prospective homebuyers. Economists expect that as mortgage rates rise, the rate of appreciation will continue to taper, though the effect may be gradual.

 "Eventually mortgage rates will slow down home prices," according to Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University interviewed by Marketwatch.10 "We should not see rapid upticks in prices as mortgage rates rise." Forecasters agree—Fannie Mae expects price increases to slow to 4.2% in 2023.7

 What does it mean for you?

 While the pace of appreciation is likely to decrease next year, home prices show no signs of going down. However, current labor shortages are leading to higher salaries and better job opportunities for many workers. You may find that your income growth outpaces home prices, making homeownership more affordable for you in the future.

 For homeowners, the outlook's even brighter. You could find yourself sitting on a nice pile of equity. Contact us for a free home value assessment to find out.

 INVENTORY REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW

 As noted, one of the largest hurdles to homeownership is a lack of inventory. According to a February 2022 report by Realtor.com, there's an expanding gap between household formation and home construction, which has resulted in a nationwide shortage of 5.8 million housing units.11

 The origins of this shortage date back to the 2008 housing crisis, during which crashing home values led contractors to stop building new properties—a trend that has not been fully reversed.12

 That decline in home construction also resulted in a decrease in the number of home building professionals, a trend that was exacerbated by job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, many builders are limited by their ability to find qualified labor.

 Another major challenge is a staggering increase in the cost of materials. Pandemic-related supply chain shortages have been a significant driver, with home building material costs rising on average 20% on a year-over-year basis. The price of framing lumber alone has tripled since August 2021.13

 These trends add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a typical home. Factors like a lack of buildable land in many areas, restrictive zoning, and a shortage of developers are also contributing to the issue.14

 Most homebuying experts agree that the lack of inventory is the primary factor driving rising housing prices and unprecedented competition for homes. With available housing units near four-decade lows, the end of the current housing boom is not yet in sight.15

 What does it mean for you?

 Prospective buyers should be prepared to compete for a home, since low inventory can lead to multiple offers. You may also need to expand your search parameters. If you're ready to look, we're ready to help.

 For sellers, the picture is rosier. In this strong market, your home may be worth more than you realize. Contact us to find out how much your home could sell for in today's market.

 WE'RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

 While national real estate trends can provide a "big picture" outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

 If you're considering buying or selling a home, contact one of our Montague Miller & Co real estate professionals to schedule a free consultation. We can help you assess your options and make the most of this unique real estate landscape.

Sources:

  1. Marketwatch - https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/home-price-appreciation-will-normalize-what-5-economists-and-real-estate-pros-predict-will-happen-to-home-prices-in-2022-01646940841
  2. Bankrate -
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast
  3. CNBC -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/16/heres-how-much-the-same-mortgage-costs-now-compared-to-last-year.html
  4. Fortune -
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/23/housing-market-interest-rate-economic-shock/
  5. National Association of Realtors -
    https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-mortgage-rates-april-07-2022
  6. Fortune -
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/16/home-prices-2022-2023-bank-of-america-forecast-mortgage-rates/
  7. Fortune -
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/what-home-prices-will-look-like-2023-fannie-mae/
  8. Fortune -
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/17/home-prices-drop-housing-markets-california-michigan-massachusetts-corelogic/
  9. CNN -
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/success/us-national-rent-february/index.html
  10. MarketWatch -
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-increase-at-one-of-the-fastest-rates-on-record-but-higher-mortgage-rates-should-slow-future-growth-11648559497
  11. com -
    https://www.realtor.com/research/us-housing-supply-gap-expands/
  12. NPR -
    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain
  13. Investopedia -
    https://www.investopedia.com/housing-market-dips-in-early-march-2022-5222449
  14. NPR -
    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain
  15. Fortune -
    https://fortune.com/2022/03/14/housing-market-key-metric-inventory-zillow-bad-for-buyers/

May
23

Some Highlights

What does the rest of the year hold for the Houseing Market? Here's what experts have to say about what lies ahead.

Home Prices are projected to rise and so are mortgage rates.  Experts are also forecasting another strong year for home sales as people move to meet their changing needs. 

Connect with a Montague Miller & Co local real estate professional so you can make your best move this year.

Resources: Keeping Current Matters, CoreLogic, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, NAR, Calculated Risk, MBA

April
4

Charlottesville Area Association REALTORS® inducted Barbara McMurry of Montague Miller & Co. – Westfield to the CAAR REALTOR® Hall of Fame, the highest career honor. This accolade acknowledges outstanding and exceptional contributions for more than 25 years of continuous service to the local, state, and national Associations.

Montague Miller & Company is pleased to announce that our associates were awarded the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS® 2021 Professional Honor Society Awards commending member achievements for 2021 - Percy Montague, IV, Trish Owens, Anita Dunbar, Rives Bailey, Pat Sury, Patricia A. Crabtree, and John Farmer.

Montague Miller & Company is pleased to announce that our associates Cindy Reed and Carrie Brown in our Madison Office received the Greater Piedmont REALTORS® 2021 Honor Society Awards commending member achievements for 2021.

Help us congratulate Cindy and Carrie!
March
9

Highlights

  • Today's housing market is the direct result of low supply and high buyer demand. Here's what that means for you and your plans to buy or sell.
  • For buyers, expect competition, be ready to move fast, and be prepared to submit your strongest offer. For sellers,  know your house will be the center of attention  and that it'll likely sell quickly and get multiple offers.
  • If you're ready to move, let's connect to talk about our local area and how you can take advantage of today's unprecedented housing market.

Resources by Keeping Current Matters, NAR

March
3

The annual inflation rate in the United States is currently around 7.5%—the highest it has been since 1982.1 It doesn't matter if you're a cashier, lawyer, plumber, or retiree; if you spend U.S. dollars, inflation impacts you.

Economists expect the effects of inflation, like a higher cost of goods, to continue.2 Luckily, an investment in real estate can ease some of the financial strain.

Here's what you need to know about inflation, how it impacts you, and how an investment in real estate can help.

WHAT IS INFLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT ME?

Inflation is a decline in the value of money. When the rate of inflation rises, prices for goods and services go up. Therefore, a dollar buys you a little bit less with every passing day. 

The consumer price index, or CPI, is a standard measure of inflation. Based on the latest CPI data, prices increased 7.5% from January 2021 to January 2022.1 A little bit of inflation is considered healthy for the economy, but 7.5% in a single year is high.

How does inflation affect your life? Here are a few of the negative impacts:

  • Decreased Purchasing Power We touched on this already, but as prices rise, your dollar won't stretch as far as it used to. That means you'll be able to purchase fewer goods and services with a limited budget.
  • Increased Borrowing Costs In an effort to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate. Therefore, consumers are likely to pay a higher interest rate on new mortgages, car loans, and variable-rate credit cards.3
  • Lower Standard of Living  Wage growth tends to lag behind price increases. According to Moody Analytics, when adjusted for inflation, average weekly earnings in January were down 3.1% from a year earlier.4 As such, life is becoming less affordable for everyone. Inflation can force those on a fixed income, like retirees, to make lifestyle changes and prioritize essentials.
  • Eroded Savings  If you store all your savings in a bank account, inflation is even more damaging. As of February 2022, the national average interest rate for a savings account is 0.06%, not nearly enough to keep up with inflation. And economists don't expect that rate to go much higher.3

One of the best ways to mitigate these effects is to find a place to invest your money other than the bank. Even though interest rates are expected to rise, they're unlikely to get high enough to beat inflation. If you hoard cash, the value of your money will decrease every year and more rapidly in years with elevated inflation.

REAL ESTATE: A PROVEN HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION

So where is a good place to invest your money to protect (hedge) against the impacts of inflation? There are several investment vehicles that financial advisors traditionally recommend, including:

  • Stocks Some people invest in stocks as their primary inflation hedge. However, the stock market can become volatile during inflationary times, as we've seen in recent months.5
  • Commodities  Commodities are tangible assets, like oil, livestock, and minerals. The theory is that the price of commodities should climb alongside inflation. But the classic choice–gold–hasn't risen consistently during periods of inflation since the 1970s, according to data from Morningstar Direct.6
  • Inflation-Indexed Bonds Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, are U.S. government-issued bonds that are indexed to the inflation rate. Bonds are considered low risk, but the returns they offer are generally low, as well.7
  • Real Estate  Real estate prices across the board tend to rise along with inflation and often rise faster than inflation.8 That's one of the reasons demand for real estate is soaring right now.9

We believe real estate is the best hedge against inflation. Owning real estate does more than protect your wealth—it can actually make you money. For example, home prices rose nearly 17% from 2020 to 2021, 10% ahead of the 7% inflation that occurred in the same timeframe.10

Plus, certain types of real estate investments can help you generate a stream of passive income. In the past year, property owners didn't just avoid the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation; they got ahead.

TYPES OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Though there are myriad ways to invest in real estate, there are three basic investment types that we recommend for beginner and intermediate investors. Remember that we can help you determine which options are best for your financial goals and budget.

Primary Residence

If you own your home, you're already ahead. The advantages of homeownership become even more apparent in inflationary times. As inflation raises prices throughout the economy, the value of your home is likely to go up concurrently. At the same time, you've locked in a set mortgage payment for the next 30 years, so you'll be immune to rising rental costs.

If you don't already own your primary residence, homeownership is a worthwhile goal to pursue.

Though the task of saving enough for a down payment may seem daunting, there are several strategies that can make homeownership easier to achieve. If you're not sure how to get started with the home buying process, contact us. Our team can help you find the strategy and property that fits your needs and budget.

Whether you already own a primary residence or are still renting, now is a good time to also start thinking about an investment property. The types of investment properties you'll buy as a solo investor generally fall into two categories: long-term rentals and short-term rentals.

Long-Term (Traditional) Rentals

A long-term or traditional rental is a dwelling that's leased out for an extended period. An example of this is a single-family home where a tenant signs a one-year lease and brings all their own furniture.

Long-term rentals are a form of housing. For most tenants, the rental serves as their primary residence, which means it's a necessary expense. This unique quality of long-term rentals can help to provide stable returns in uncertain times, especially when we have high inflation.

To invest in a long-term rental, you'll need to budget for maintenance, repairs, property taxes, and insurance. You'll also need to have a plan for managing the property. But a well-chosen investment property should pay for itself through rental income, and you'll benefit from appreciation as the property rises in value.

We can help you find an ideal long-term rental property to suit your budget and investment goals. Reach out to talk about your needs and our local market opportunities. 

Short-Term (Vacation) Rentals

Short-term or vacation rentals function more like hotels in that they offer temporary accommodations. A short-term rental is defined as a residential dwelling that is rented for 30 days or less. The furniture and other amenities are provided by the property owner, and today many short-term rentals are listed on websites like Airbnb and Vrbo.

A short-term rental can potentially earn you a higher return than a long-term rental, but this comes at the cost of daily, hands-on management. With a short-term rental, you're not just entering the real estate business; you're entering the hospitality business, too.

Done right, short-term rentals can be both a hedge against inflation and a profitable source of income. As a bonus, when the home isn't being rented you have an affordable vacation spot for yourself and your family!

Contact us today if you're interested in exploring options in either the long-term or short-term rental market. Mortgage rates are expected to rise, so you'll want to act fast to maximize your investment return.

 

WE'RE INVESTED IN HELPING YOU

Inflation is a fact of life in the U.S. economy. Luckily, you can prepare for inflation with a carefully managed investment portfolio that includes real estate. Owning a primary residence or investing in a short-term or long-term rental will help you both mitigate the effects of inflation and grow your net worth, which makes it a strategic move in our current financial environment.

If you're ready to invest in real estate to build wealth and protect yourself from rising inflation, contact us. Our team of real estate professionals at Montague Miller & Co, Realtors, can help you find a primary residence or investment property that meets your financial goals. 

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

  1. Bloomberg -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/u-s-inflation-charges-higher-with-larger-than-forecast-gain
  2. CNN -
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/01/economy/inflation-prices-2022-preview/index.html
  3. CNBC -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/the-fed-sets-the-stage-for-a-rate-hike-heres-what-that-means-for-you.html
  4. Reuters -
    https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-prices-rise-strongly-january-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-2022-02-10/
  5. NBC News -
    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/market-slide-dow-falls-700-points-sp-enters-correction-territory-rcna13304
  6. CNBC -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/gold-is-losing-its-status-as-an-inflation-hedge-two-traders-warn.html
  7. Morningstar -
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1079158/why-are-inflation-protected-bond-funds-losing-money
  8. The Washington Post -
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/04/heres-how-inflation-could-affect-your-next-real-estate-move/
  9. Bloomberg -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-24/is-real-estate-a-good-investment-hedge-against-inflation-what-the-experts-say
  10. CNN -
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/20/homes/us-nar-home-sales-december-and-2021/index.html
January
1

Last year was one for the real estate history books. The pandemic helped usher in a buying frenzy that caused home prices to soar nationwide by a record 19.9% between August 2020 and August 2021.1

However, there were signs in the fourth quarter that the red-hot housing market was beginning to simmer down. In the month of October, only 60.3% of sales involved a bidding war—down from a high of 74.5% in April.2 While this trend could be attributed to seasonality, it could also be a signal that the real estate run-up may have passed its peak.

 So what's ahead for the U.S. housing market in 2022? Here's where industry experts predict the market is headed in the coming year.

Mortgage Rates Will Creep Up

Most economists expect to see mortgage rates gradually rise this year after hitting record lows in late 2020 and early 2021.3

Freddie Mac forecasts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 3.5% in 2022, up from around 3% in 2021.4

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will tick up to 4% by the end of the year. "Mortgage lenders and borrowers should expect rising mortgage rates over the next year, as stronger economic growth pushes Treasury yields higher," said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association at their 2001 Annual Convention & Expo in October.5

However, it's important to keep in mind that even a 4% mortgage rate is low when compared to historical standards. According to industry trade blog The Mortgage Reports, "Between 1971 and December 2020, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 7.89%."6

What does it mean for you? Low mortgage rates can reduce your monthly payment and make homeownership more affordable. Fortunately, there's still time to lock in a historically-low rate. Whether you're hoping to purchase a new home or refinance an existing mortgage, act soon before rates go up any further. We'd be happy to connect you with a trusted lending professional in our network.

The Market Will Become More Balanced

In 2021, we experienced one of the most competitive real estate markets ever. Fears about the virus and a shift to remote work triggered a huge uptick in demand. At the same time, many existing homeowners delayed their plans to sell, and supply and labor shortages hindered new construction.

This led to an extreme market imbalance that benefitted sellers and frustrated buyers. According to George Ratiu, director of economic research at Realtor.com, "Prices and sellers reached for the moon [last] year. It looks like we are now about to move back to earth."7

Data from Realtor.com released in November showed that listing price reductions had more than doubled since February 2021. And the average days on market (an indicator of how long it takes a home to sell) has been slowly creeping up since June.7

What's causing this change in market dynamics? The real estate market typically slows down in the fall and winter. But economists also suspect a fundamental shift in supply and demand.

At the National Association of Realtors' annual conference last November, the group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, told attendees that he expects increased supply to come from an uptick in new construction—which is already underway—and an end to the mortgage forbearance program. "With more housing inventory to hit the market, the intense multiple offers will start to ease," he said.8

Demand is also predicted to wane slightly in the coming year. Rising mortgage rates and record-high prices have made homeownership unaffordable for a growing number of Americans. And in a recent Reuters poll, nearly 80% of property analysts said they expect housing affordability to worsen over the next several years.9

What does it mean for you? If you struggled to buy a home last year, there may be some relief on the horizon. Increased supply and softening demand could make it easier to finally secure the home of your dreams. If you're a seller, it's still a great time to cash out your big equity gains! And with more inventory on the market, you'll have an easier time finding your next home. Reach out for a free consultation so we can discuss your specific needs and goals.

Home Prices Likely To Keep Climbing, But At A Slower Pace

Nationally, home prices rose an estimated 16.8% in 2021.8 But the average rate of appreciation is expected to slow down in 2022.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, told Yahoo! News, "Home asking prices have decelerated in the second half of 2021, with median listing price growth slipping from a peak of 17.2% in April to just 8.6% in October."10

But experts disagree about how much more property values can continue to climb this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that home prices will rise by 13.5%, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are forecasting a 7.9% and 7% rate of appreciation, respectively.2

However, not all analysts are as bullish. The National Association of Realtors predicts a 2.8% rate of appreciation for existing homes and 4.4% for new homes, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects the average home price to decrease by 2.5% by the end of the year.10,2

According to Hale, "With prices near all-time highs and mortgage rates expected to rise, we expect this slowdown in prices to continue."10

What does it mean for you? If you're a buyer who has been waiting on the sidelines for home prices to drop, you may be out of luck. Even if home prices dip slightly (and most economists expect them to rise) any savings are likely to be offset by higher mortgage rates. The good news is that decreased competition means more choice and less likelihood of a bidding war. We can help you get the most for your money in today's market.

Rents Will Continue To Rise

Along with home, gasoline, and used vehicle prices, rent prices rose dramatically last year. According to CoreLogic, in September, rents for single-family homes were up 10.2% nationally year over year.11 And economists at Realtor.com expect them to climb another 7.1% in 2022.12

"Homes are expensive now...but for most people, the comparison that is most important is how that cost of homeownership is going to compare to the cost of renting," Zillow Senior Economist Jeff Tucker told CNBC in November.13

Tucker also pointed out that rent is less predictable than a mortgage—and more likely to go up along with inflation.13

Real assets, like real estate, are often used as a hedge against inflation. That's because property values typically rise with inflation.14 And when a homeowner takes out a mortgage, they lock in a set housing payment for the next 30 years.

In contrast, renters are at the mercy of the market—and they don't gain any of the benefits of homeownership, like tax deductions, equity, or appreciation.

George Ratiu of Realtor.com told CNBC that he advises buyers to consider their budget and time frame. If they plan to stay in the home for at least three to five years, he believes it often makes sense to buy.13

Fortunately, it's shaping up to be a better year for buyers. "I think 2022 has the promise of providing less competition, a lot more homes to choose from, and, as a result, a lot more approachable prices," Ratiu said.13

What does it mean for you? Both property and rent prices are expected to continue rising. But when you purchase a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you can rest assured knowing that your monthly mortgage payment will never go up. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a real estate investor, we can help you make the most of today's real estate market.

 We're Here To Guide You

While national real estate numbers and predictions can provide a "big picture" outlook for the year, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

If you're considering buying or selling a home in 2022, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We'll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.

Sources:

1. Fortune -
https://fortune.com/2021/11/04/us-home-prices-real-estate-forecast-2022-outlook/

2. Fortune -
https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/housing-market-real-estate-predictions-2022-forecast/

3. Freddie Mac -
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html

4. Freddie Mac - https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/freddie-mac-strong-housing-market-will-continue-even-rates-and

5. Mortgage Bankers Association -
https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mba-annual-forecast-purchase-originations-to-increase-9-percent-to-record-173-trillion-in-2022

6. The Mortgage Reports -
https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart

7. Realtor.com -
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/has-housing-market-peaked/

8. National Association of Realtors -
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-yun-says-housing-market-doing-well-may-normalize-in-2022

9. Reuters -
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rise-us-house-prices-halve-next-year-affordability-worsen-2021-12-07/

10. Yahoo! News -
https://www.yahoo.com/now/where-home-prices-headed-2022-130012748.html

11. CNBC -
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/inflation-rent-for-single-family-homes-surged-10percent-in-september.html

12. Realtor.com -
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/what-to-expect-in-2022-housing-market/

13. CNBC -
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/rising-inflation-hot-housing-market-what-you-need-to-know-about-buying-a-home.html
14. Money -
https://money.com/inflation-2021-stocks-bitcoin-gold-reits-commodities/

December
18

If You Think the Housing Market Will Slow This Winter, Think Again. | MyKCM

From the opportunity to take advantage of today's low mortgage rates to changing homeowner needs, Americans have more motivation than ever to buy a home. According to the experts, buyers are making moves right now, creating an unseasonably strong housing market for this time of year.

As we wrap up the fall season and move into the winter months, here's a look at what several industry leaders have to say about the continued momentum in the current market, and what it means as we head into the early part of next year.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR)

"This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years." 

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American

"So far in November, purchase applications point to another strong month in sales. Still low rates and demographic demand support this strength, even as affordability and inventory headwinds remain."

The M Report

"The demand for housing in the United States has reached a fever pitch, a trend that opposes the norm of this time of the year when the market cools as the winter months set in."

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

"Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market's sails."

What does this mean for the winter housing market?

Buyers are actively in the market, and they're competing for homes to purchase. With the momentum coming out of this fall, all signs point to the winter housing market picking up steam, making it much busier than in a more typical year. And as we've seen in so many ways, 2020 and 2021 were anything but typical in real estate. It looks like 2022 may be joining that list before we know it.

If you think the housing market will slow down this winter, think again. Whether you're thinking of buying a home, selling your house, or both – connect with your trusted real estate professional to determine if this winter is your best time to make a move too.

Resources: Keeping Current Matters, National Association of Realtors (NAR), First American

September
30

HGTV and home renovation shows may be entertaining, but they're not always accurate. In particular, most of them skip over the important ways real estate agents can help homeowners.

In the real world, agents play a huge role in home purchases, sales and even flips.

Are you planning to make a real estate move this year? Here are just a few of the ways an agent can help make the experience a success.

Experience and Local Knowledge

Agents know how to draw up your contracts, handle the paperwork and save you valuable time (which is vital in today's busy market). We also have on-the-ground knowledge of the local market, which can help you better evaluate properties, make offers and negotiate pricing.

Negotiation Skills and Key Partners

Experienced agents also know how to negotiate successfully and can leverage inspection results, sales reports and other data to get you the best bang for your buck — whether you're buying or selling.

Working with an agent also provides access to deep professional networks, which comes in handy when it's time to find an inspector, contractor, financial adviser, mortgage lender, real estate attorney and other partners on your journey.

Consider this...

Finally, agents know all about home values — as well as what features, amenities and styles can increase your property value down the line. 

There's no need to navigate a stressful, complex and high-stakes process alone when you could have a knowledgeable and compassionate agent working on your behalf.

Do you want help with your next home sale, purchase or fix-and-flip? Get in touch today.

July
29

As we move into the second half of the year, one thing is clear: the current real estate market is one for the record books. The exact mix of conditions we have today creates opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Here's a look at four key components that are shaping this unprecedented market.

A Shortage of Homes for Sale

Earlier this year, the number of homes available for sale fell to an all-time low. In recent months, however, inventory levels are starting to trend up. The latest Monthly Housing Market Trends Report from realtor.com says:

"In June, newly listed homes grew by 5.5% on a year-over-year basis, and by 10.9% on a month-over-month basis. Typically, fewer newly listed homes appear on the market in the month of June compared to May. This year, growth in new listings is continuing later into the summer season, a welcome sign for a tight housing market."

This is good news for buyers who crave more options. But even though we're experiencing small gains in the number of available homes for sale, inventory remains a challenge in most states. That's why it's still a sellers' market, giving homeowners immense leverage when they decide to make a move.

Buyer Competition and Bidding Wars

Today's ongoing low supply, coupled with high demand, creates a market characterized by high buyer competition and bidding wars. Buyers are going above and beyond to make sure their offer stands out from the crowd by offering over the asking price, all cash, or waiving some contingencies. The number of offers on the average house for sale broke records this year – and that's great news for sellers.

The latest Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says the average home for sale receives five offers. (see graph below)

Today's Real Estate Market Explained Through 4 Key Trends | MyKCM

For buyers, the best way to put a compelling offer together is by working with a local real estate professional. That agent can act as your trusted advisor on what terms are best for you and what's most appealing to the seller.

Home Price Appreciation

The competition among buyers is driving prices up. Over the past year, we've seen home price appreciation rise across the country. According to the most recent Home Price Index (HPI) from CoreLogic, national home prices increased 15.4% year-over-year in May:

"The May 2021 HPI gain was up from the May 2020 gain of 4.2% and was the highest year-over-year gain since November 2005. Low mortgage rates and low for-sale inventory drove the increase in home prices."

Rising home values are a big part of why real estate remains one of the top sought-after investments for Americans. For potential sellers, it also means it's a great time to list your house to maximize the return on your investment.

A Rise in Home Values and Equity

The equity in a home doesn't just grow when a homeowner pays their mortgage – it also grows as the home's value appreciates. Thanks to the jump in price appreciation, homeowners across the country are seeing record-breaking gains in home equity. CoreLogic recently reported:

"…homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 19.6% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $1.9 trillion, and an average gain of $33,400 per borrower, since the first quarter of 2020."

That's a major perk for households to leverage. Homeowners can use that equity to accomplish major life goals or move into their dream homes.

If you're thinking about buying or selling, there's no time like the present. Our Montague Miller & Co real estate professionals are prepared to answer your questions. Let's connect to talk about how you can take advantage of the conditions we're seeing today to meet your homeownership goals. 

Research provided by Keeping Current Matters and Core Logic

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. 

May
5

So far this year, mortgage rates continue to hover around 3%, encouraging many hopeful homebuyers to enter the housing market. However, there's a good chance rates will increase later this year and going into 2022, ultimately making it more expensive to borrow money for a home loan. Here's a look at what several experts have to say.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economistrealtor.com:

"Our long-term view for mortgage rates in 2021 is higher. As the economic outlook strengthens, thanks to progress against coronavirus and vaccines plus a dose of stimulus from the government, this pushes up expectations for economic growth . . . ."

Lawrence Yun, Chief EconomistNational Association of Realtors (NAR):

"In 2021, I think rates will be similar or modestly higher . . . mortgage rates will continue to be historically favorable."

Freddie Mac:

"We forecast that mortgage rates will continue to rise through the end of next year. We estimate the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, rising to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022."

Below are the most recent mortgage rate forecasts from four top authorities – Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and NAR:

Bottom Line

If you're planning to buy a home, purchasing before mortgage interest rates rise may help you save significantly over the life of your home loan.

Resources provided by Keeping Current Matters. The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice.